Fed Decision in July?
Yes 81%
No 19%
Vol. $25.8M
2026 election prediction markets: US Midterms, UK elections, and global political outcomes. Live crowd-sourced probabilities updated in real time. 0% house edge.
Why markets beat polls: Prediction markets in 2024 correctly priced Trump's re-election win at ~60% while mainstream polls showed a dead heat. Markets integrate all available information — including information that politically-biased pollsters discount. Real money is the commitment mechanism that makes the difference.
Election markets are binary contracts. For "Will Republicans win the Senate in 2026 Midterms?", you can buy:
The price of each contract = implied probability. At $0.61, the market believes there is a 61% chance Republicans retain the Senate. This number updates in real time as news breaks — a candidate scandal, an unexpected poll, a debate performance. Prices move faster than any news organisation can publish.
The 2026 US Midterm elections are the biggest political event of the year globally. Key markets typically include:
UK political events are among the most actively-traded non-US markets on Polymarket:
The 2016, 2020, and 2024 US elections all demonstrated polling's systematic failures. Prediction markets are immune to these because:
Highly accurate. Polymarket's markets predicted the 2024 US Presidential election correctly when polls were divided. Academic research consistently shows prediction markets outperform polls on election outcomes.
Yes — US Midterm election markets are among the highest-volume political markets on Polymarket, accessible via PolyGram with email-only registration and no crypto wallet required.
UK users can access prediction markets on decentralised protocols legally. They are not UKGC-regulated gambling products. HMRC may treat profits as taxable income — consult a tax advisor.
Polls measure stated voter intention. Prediction markets measure what informed traders believe will happen with real money at stake — correctly accounting for turnout, electoral arithmetic, and structural factors that polls miss.
Major elections and high-profile by-elections are listed on Polymarket. Volume concentrates on internationally-followed events — General Elections, Prime Minister markets, and US Midterms.
Live data from Polymarket · updated hourly