GPT-5.6 released by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket traders currently price this contract at effectively **0%**, so the market is signalling that a publicly accessible successor to GPT‑5.5, such as GPT‑5.6 Sol/Terra/Luna or any numbered follow‑on (5.7, 5.8, etc.), will not be generally available to all users by the end of July 2026. With USDC escrowed on Polygon and positions held as conditional tokens, that near‑zero price reflects the view that today’s limited preview does not yet meet the “general public” threshold defined in the rules.

To read that price, it helps to look at how prior model transitions have unfolded. GPT‑5.5 was announced with a dated launch page and went quickly to broad access via the main interface and API, giving traders a clear, early release anchor.[2] By contrast, GPT‑5.6 was only hinted at in backend Codex routing logs in May, before being formally previewed as a three‑tier Sol/Terra/Luna family on 26 June, with access restricted to selected partners via API and Codex.[1][4][7] OpenAI’s system card and help documentation repeatedly stress that this is a limited preview, with no general‑availability date announced and explicit confirmation that it is not available in the consumer interface.[5][7] That gap between named preview and open release is what the current price is reacting to.

Catalysts for any repricing are straightforward: traders should watch OpenAI’s index posts, community announcements, and deployment safety hub for a shift from “preview” to a clear general‑availability statement that includes consumer access through the main interface or open API enrolment.[4][5][6][7] Any update to Codex logs or pricing pages that reclassifies GPT‑5.6 or a direct successor (e.g. GPT‑5.7) as broadly available before 31 July would be highly relevant, as the market resolves purely on whether such a successor is accessible to the general public by that date, not on intermediate partner‑only previews.[2][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.