Bitcoin price on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's noon ET price on 13 August 2026 will be determined by the closing value of the BTC/USDT 1-minute candle on Binance at that precise moment. The market currently shows 0% implied probability for a "Yes" resolution, suggesting traders either expect the contract to fail on a technical basis or view the settlement window as too distant to price meaningfully. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token pair on Polygon, with positions settled in USDC against the Binance spot price feed.

Historical precedent from similar Bitcoin price-point markets reveals that noon-hour snapshots often capture less volatile pricing than 24-hour closes, reducing the likelihood of extreme outliers. Markets settling on specific intraday timestamps have historically resolved "No" at elevated rates when data feeds experience gaps or when the underlying exchange undergoes maintenance during the settlement window. The 0% crowd probability may reflect scepticism about Binance's operational continuity across a two-year horizon, rather than conviction about Bitcoin's actual price trajectory.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Binance's infrastructure announcements and any regulatory changes affecting the exchange's US-facing operations, given that ET noon represents American trading hours. Macroeconomic catalysts—Federal Reserve policy shifts, spot Bitcoin ETF flows, and geopolitical developments affecting crypto adoption—will shape Bitcoin's price environment in August 2026, though their influence on a single intraday candle remains inherently unpredictable. The extended settlement window means liquidity may remain thin until closer to the resolution date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.