Bitcoin price on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is treating a Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute **12:00 ET close** on the specified August date as effectively out of reach for the supported range brackets. The payoff here is mechanically tied to a Binance candle close, not a broad “Bitcoin on the day” headline, so the relevant number is the exact minute print that feeds the market’s conditional token resolution on Polygon using USDC collateral.

For context, Bitcoin was trading around **$64,000** early on 5 August, with one live snapshot at **$64,137.26** at 5:45 a.m. ET and another contemporary market read near **$64,200**.[1][2] Comparable prediction-market pricing on the same date shows traders clustering around the low-to-mid $64,000s, with Robinhood listing **$64,000 or above** at 99¢ for a nearby intraday Bitcoin event, while other retail forecasts still frame the day as a sideways range rather than a sharp breakout.[3][4]

The main catalysts to watch are the usual intraday drivers for BTC: US macro headlines, ETF flow narratives, and any sharp move in risk assets before the noon ET candle closes. Because this market settles on a single Binance minute candle, liquidity can matter more than direction; even a brief spike or wick around noon can determine the bracket if the close lands near a boundary. Traders should therefore focus on Binance spot activity into the settlement window, plus any scheduled data releases or policy headlines that could move BTC in the final hour.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.