Bitcoin price on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Binance-settled Bitcoin contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is treating a qualifying 12:00 ET BTC/USDT 1-minute close on 31 July as effectively out of reach. On Polymarket, that view is expressed in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the quoted price is the crowd’s live assessment of the settlement outcome rather than a direct spot quote.[1][2]

That scepticism sits against a Bitcoin market that has recently been trading in the low-to-mid **$60,000s**, with several data points clustering around roughly $62,000 to $63,500 in early July and prediction venues showing most volume concentrated in nearby ranges rather than a sharp breakout. For context, a recent prediction-market listing on Robinhood had the nearest brackets around $63,000 to $65,000 trading between 37¢ and 66¢, while Predicate’s July 31 market saw its heaviest volume in the $60,000-$64,000 bands, suggesting traders have been leaning towards a middling print rather than a dramatic move.[1][2][4][5]

For the final hours, the main catalysts are the usual short-dated crypto drivers: US macro releases that can move risk assets, any fresh regulatory or ETF-related headlines, and Bitcoin-specific liquidity flows into the Binance noon ET candle that determines settlement. Traders also need to watch the clock mechanics carefully, because this market resolves from a single Binance 1-minute “Close” price at 12:00 ET, not an average or a broader daily reference, and a one-minute spike can decide the contract even if the broader market looks stable.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.