Claude Mythos 5 access restored by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 12 June 2026, the US government issued an export control directive forcing Anthropic to suspend access to both Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5 for all customers worldwide. By 26 June, Anthropic began restoring Mythos 5 access to a limited set of US organisations focused on cybersecurity and critical infrastructure, while Fable 5 remained blocked until 30 June when the Commerce Department lifted restrictions on both models. Fable 5 access was fully restored on 1 July, but Mythos 5 remains restricted to vetted partners under Project Glasswing, with no general availability announced.

Historical precedent shows that when US export controls target specific AI models, partial restorations often occur within days if the government narrows its directive, as seen with the 26 June Mythos 5 restart. However, full general availability for high-risk models like Mythos 5 has never been granted, unlike Fable 5, which returned to standard subscription plans. The current 0% crowd-implied probability reflects this pattern: Mythos 5 is unlikely to be restored to any previously rescinded US partner beyond the initial vetted cohort, given its designation as a "Covered Model" with mandatory 30-day data retention and strict access controls.

Traders should monitor Anthropic’s official X.com announcements and AWS Bedrock updates for any expansion of Mythos 5 access beyond the current US organisations. A recent update on 1 July confirmed Fable 5 restoration but noted Mythos 5 remains limited to vetted cybersecurity partners, with no timeline for broader rollout. The key catalyst is whether the US government issues a further narrowed directive allowing Mythos 5 redeployment to additional US clients, as hinted in Anthropic’s 1 July statement that they are "continuing to work with the government to expand access". Without such a directive, the market will resolve to "No" by the 2026 settlement date.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.