July Inflation US - Monthly

Platform comparison

Market context

The BLS will publish July 2026's seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers on 12 August 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. The market resolves to the one-month percent change in the CPI-U figure released that morning. On Polymarket, this contract currently trades at 0% implied probability on the YES side, reflecting trader consensus that month-on-month inflation will register below the threshold specified in the full market terms. USDC settlement occurs on Polygon once the BLS data confirms the outcome, with conditional tokens collapsing to either side of the binary.

Monthly CPI changes typically range between −0.1% and +0.5% in seasonally adjusted terms during normal economic conditions. The twelve-month trailing average has anchored around 2.5–3.5% in recent years, though month-to-month volatility can exceed annual trends significantly. July readings have historically shown modest seasonal patterns; energy prices and apparel adjustments often create outsized swings. The 0% probability priced into this contract suggests traders expect the monthly change to fall outside whatever threshold the market's terms define—a reading that would require either deflation or an unusually subdued inflation print relative to recent precedent.

Traders should monitor the 5 August producer price index release, which often foreshadows consumer inflation direction. Labour market data through early August will also influence expectations around wage-driven demand pressures. Any significant commodity price moves or supply-chain disruptions in late July could shift the inflation trajectory. The settlement window closes 12 August at 03:59 UTC, allowing only hours after the official BLS release for final contract resolution on-chain.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.