Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 10AM ET

Platform comparison

Market context

This market resolves based on whether Bitcoin's price on Binance's BTC/USDT pair closes at or above its opening level during the one-hour candle beginning 10 AM ET on 13 July 2026. The 100% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that an hourly candle closing in the green represents an even-money proposition, though the extreme confidence suggests traders may be pricing in specific conditions or treating this as a technical floor rather than a genuine forecast.

Hourly Bitcoin candles historically close positive roughly 51–52% of the time across major exchanges, making this a near-neutral event by baseline statistics. During periods of elevated volatility—such as post-FOMC announcements or major regulatory statements—directional bias can shift materially within single hours. The settlement window extends to 15:00 ET, providing a five-hour buffer after the candle closes, which aligns with Binance's standard data finalisation practices and reduces settlement disputes.

Traders should monitor macroeconomic releases scheduled for 13 July 2026 and any overnight developments in Asian markets that might establish momentum before the US morning session. Bitcoin's correlation with equity futures, particularly the Nasdaq, often determines intraday direction; any significant gap moves in US stock index futures between market close on 12 July and the 10 AM ET window could establish directional pressure. Settlement depends entirely on Binance's published 1H candle data, with no discretion for alternative price sources or dispute resolution mechanisms beyond the exchange's recorded figures.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.