Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) passed the House on 17 July 2025 with bipartisan backing but now stalls in the Senate Banking Committee, leaving its 2026 signing deadline uncertain [4][5]. On Polymarket, this contract trades at 38% YES, priced in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, reflecting scepticism about Senate progress despite the House vote.

Historically, crypto market-structure bills face prolonged Senate delays; the 2022 Responsible Financial Innovation Act stalled for years before yielding only partial provisions, while California’s 2023 DFAL succeeded only after state-level consensus [1][5]. The current 38% probability aligns with past patterns where House-passed crypto bills rarely reach the President without a companion Senate bill, suggesting the crowd correctly discounts the lack of Senate action.

Traders should monitor the Senate Banking Committee’s schedule for a RFIA discussion draft vote, any joint SEC-CFTC rulemaking announcements, and bipartisan Senate sponsor introductions before year-end [2][5]. A recent Morgan Lewis report notes the Act’s provisional registration regime and transactional exemptions remain untested without Senate approval, making committee hearings in August and September critical catalysts for probability shifts [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.