Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO

Platform comparison

Market context

Credible Finance’s curated public sale on MetaDAO has already attracted $2.315m in soft institutional commits, pushing the crowd-implied probability of hitting its target to 99% YES on Polymarket. The contract trades near parity because the raise mechanism is on-chain: investors commit USDC over four days on Polygon, with allocations and refunds handled pro rata via conditional tokens that resolve automatically once the “committed” figure on the official sale page hits the threshold [2][1].

Historically, MetaDAO ICOs with discretionary caps and pre-committed institutional backing have resolved YES almost invariably, as founders only close sales once minimums are met to avoid triggering full refunds [1][5]. Past launches like Umbra succeeded by leveraging similar soft-commit momentum, where the on-chain total quickly surpassed minimums before the discretionary cap was applied, making late-stage reversals rare [7].

Traders should monitor Credible’s July 13 launch announcement for any updates on the discretionary cap or final threshold adjustments, as the sale closes only when the founder confirms the target is reached [9]. Key catalysts include the official “committed” figure update on the MetaDAO fundraise page and any scheduled institutional integration announcements, since Credible’s global pay-in/out rails and licensed partner coverage could accelerate final commitments [2]. The resolution source remains immutable: the displayed figure on https://www.metadao.fi/projects/credible/fundraise, regardless of subsequent refunds [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.