What price will Bitcoin hit August 10-16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's price action during the week of 10–16 August 2026 will determine settlement of this contract. Polymarket currently prices this outcome at zero, reflecting either extreme confidence in a specific price band or minimal trading volume on this particular settlement window. The contract settles on 17 August 2026, giving traders a defined seven-day observation period. On Polygon, this conditional token pair trades against USDC, with settlement determined by reference price feeds—typically spot prices from major exchanges at UTC close on the settlement date.

Historical Bitcoin volatility during summer months shows weekly swings of 5–15% are routine, though directional conviction often weakens during August as institutional traders reduce exposure ahead of autumn volatility. The 0% implied probability suggests either the market has priced in an extremely narrow price range as "impossible" to miss, or the contract has attracted minimal liquidity relative to broader Bitcoin perpetual markets. Comparable weekly price-band contracts on Polymarket have shown that low-probability outcomes often reflect sparse order books rather than genuine certainty.

Traders monitoring this contract should track macroeconomic calendar events in early August—US employment data, Federal Reserve communications, and any geopolitical developments affecting risk appetite. Bitcoin's correlation with equity futures remains material; weakness in S&P 500 options markets or shifts in real yields could shift spot prices sharply within the settlement window. Recent on-chain metrics, including exchange inflows and whale accumulation patterns, typically signal directional bias 48–72 hours before significant moves.

Methodology

We track What price will Bitcoin hit August 10-16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.