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What price will Bitcoin hit July 13-19?

How the prediction-market book is pricing "What price will Bitcoin hit July 13-19?" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

↑ 64,000 57% ↓ 60,000 34% ↑ 66,000 19% ↓ 58,000 10% Volume: $66K Liquidity: $294K Closes: 20 Jul 2026
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What price will Bitcoin hit July 13-19?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 57% 43% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 57% 43% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
↑ 64,00057%
↓ 60,00034%
↑ 66,00019%
↓ 58,00010%
↑ 68,0005%
↓ 56,0003%
↑ 72,0001%
↑ 70,0001%
↑ 76,0000%
↑ 74,0000%
↓ 54,0000%
↓ 52,0000%
↓ 50,0000%
↓ 48,0000%

Market context

The What price will Bitcoin hit July 13-19? prediction market currently prices this outcome at 57% YES. What price will Bitcoin hit July 13-19?

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Oliver HughesOliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto ReporterandEmma RobertsEmma RobertsFinancial Journalist

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