What price will Bitcoin hit on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract essentially priced for a non-event: the crowd-implied **YES** probability is **0%**, so conditional tokens tied to a higher August 4 Bitcoin print are trading as if that outcome is not worth paying for. On Polymarket, traders are still expressing views through USDC on Polygon, with the contract settling against the market’s resolution rule rather than against a general narrative about Bitcoin itself.

That near-zero reading sits alongside a broader market structure that has been leaning towards mid-$60,000s to low-$60,000s rather than a decisive breakout. Public price-prediction pages and event markets have clustered around ranges such as $60,000–$66,000, while some August outlooks have stressed seasonal weakness and support near $60,000 as the key level to watch[1][5][7][8][9]. In that context, a 0% YES price suggests traders see the listed threshold as effectively out of reach before settlement, rather than merely unlikely.

The main catalysts are the usual macro and flow drivers: U.S. inflation data, Federal Reserve commentary, and any shift in ETF or spot demand that could move Bitcoin sharply inside the settlement window. One recent market note pointed to the August 12 inflation release as a possible trigger, with a hotter print potentially reinforcing weakness and a softer print helping risk assets rebound; it also flagged Jackson Hole later in the month as another rate-sensitive event[9]. For Polymarket users, the practical issue is not only direction but timing: the contract resolves on a single timestamp, so even a brief move through the target level on Polygon-settled odds can matter more than where Bitcoin finishes the day.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.