How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket’s contract is pricing **86%** odds that the Fed will deliver the specified number of 25 bp cuts in 2026, with settlement in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens. Because the market counts each 25 bp move separately, a 50 bp reduction would resolve as two cuts, and any unscheduled emergency action would also add to the tally before the close on 31 December 2026.

For context, this sits between forecasts that still expect some easing and those that see the Fed staying put. Goldman Sachs says its working assumption is that policymakers will slow easing but still deliver cuts in 2026, while J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank have been more cautious, arguing the Fed could remain on hold through the year; Reuters has also reported economists pushing expected cuts later on inflation risks. That leaves the market’s high probability looking like a live bet on eventual easing, but not a settled view on timing or size.[2][1][10][7]

A trader watching this contract should focus on FOMC meeting dates, the post-meeting statement, the Summary of Economic Projections, and any shift in the dot plot, because those are what can reprice the total cuts quickly. The Fed’s calendar determines the scheduled decision windows, while inflation and labour data between meetings will shape whether officials stick with a hold, signal one cut, or move more aggressively; emergency cuts would be rare but still count under the market rules.[14][13][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.