Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: Atreides (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 36.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 39.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Atreides (-3.5) vs GenOne (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: GenOne (-3.5) vs Atreides (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: GenOne (-6.5) vs Atreides (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: G1 (-1.5) vs Atreides (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Atreides (-3.5) vs GenOne (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Atreides (-6.5) vs GenOne (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: GenOne (-3.5) vs Atreides (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 45.5 | 0% |
Market context
GenOne and Atreides will compete in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match during the NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage on 24 July at 1:00PM ET. The Polymarket contract currently prices GenOne's victory at zero, reflecting either extreme confidence in Atreides or minimal trading activity on this particular fixture. The settlement window closes at 23:30 UTC the same day, allowing roughly 22.5 hours from scheduled start time for the match to conclude. On-chain, this resolves as a binary conditional token on Polygon, with USDC collateral backing either outcome.
The 0% implied probability warrants scrutiny against comparable tier-two Counter-Strike fixtures. Regional qualifiers and group-stage matches involving lesser-known rosters frequently see thin liquidity and mispriced contracts, particularly when one team lacks recent tournament visibility or established ranking. NODWIN tournaments, whilst legitimate, draw smaller audiences than Valve-sponsored events, meaning roster strength assessments depend heavily on recent LAN results and online standings rather than mainstream coverage.
Traders should monitor NODWIN's official schedule confirmation in the 24 hours before match time, as group-stage delays are not uncommon in regional circuits. Roster changes or stand-in announcements could shift expectations materially. The forfeit clause matters: if either team fails to appear, the market resolves 50-50 rather than to the opposing team, creating asymmetric risk for those backing Atreides at current odds. Any announcement of technical issues or venue problems would similarly trigger the tie resolution pathway.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Cl… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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