Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-3.5) vs ex-Sashi Academy (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-6.5) vs ex-Sashi Academy (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: IC.A (-1.5) vs ex-Sashi Academy (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-3.5) vs ex-Sashi Academy (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-3.5) vs ex-Sashi Academy (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-6.5) vs ex-Sashi Academy (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-6.5) vs ex-Sashi Academy (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
Market context
Inner Circle Academy face ex-Sashi Academy in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match within the CCT Europe Closed Qualifier Series #7, Group D stage, scheduled for 14 August at 10:00 AM ET. The conditional token market on Polygon currently prices this at 100% YES for Inner Circle Academy victory, reflecting either overwhelming confidence in their performance or minimal liquidity depth at present. Settlement occurs at 20:15 UTC on the same day, allowing roughly ten hours post-match for result confirmation before the market resolves.
The CCT Europe circuit has established itself as a secondary competitive pathway for regional rosters, with academy teams and reformed squads using these qualifiers to build records and secure invitations to larger tournaments. Inner Circle Academy's presence in this bracket suggests recent roster stability or promising player development, whilst ex-Sashi Academy carries institutional recognition from Sashi's prior esports operations. Historical CCT results show academy-tier teams produce volatile matchups; favourites at 90%+ implied probability have occasionally failed to advance, particularly when roster changes or stand-in players feature prominently.
Traders should monitor team announcements through 13 August for any last-minute roster changes, illness, or technical issues that could trigger postponement. The seven-day delay clause in the market's resolution criteria creates a specific risk vector—if the match is rescheduled beyond 21 August without completion, the market resolves to "No" regardless of eventual outcome. CCT's official schedule and team social media channels typically confirm final lineups 24 hours before fixture time. Given the 100% pricing, any material uncertainty regarding participation or format changes would represent the primary catalyst for conditional token repricing.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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