Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: MZP (-1.5) vs Johnny Speeds (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Metizport (-3.5) vs Johnny Speeds (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Metizport (-3.5) vs Johnny Speeds (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Metizport (-3.5) vs Johnny Speeds (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Metizport (-6.5) vs Johnny Speeds (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Metizport (-9.5) vs Johnny Speeds (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Metizport (-6.5) vs Johnny Speeds (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Johnny Speeds (-3.5) vs Metizport (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Johnny Speeds (-6.5) vs Metizport (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: JS (-1.5) vs Metizport (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Metizport (-6.5) vs Johnny Speeds (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket prices Johnny Speeds vs Metizport at **0% YES** for Johnny Speeds, even though the market is still tied to the actual BO3 on Polygon, where USDC is locked into conditional tokens and the contract only settles once the result is confirmed. The crowd is effectively assigning no chance that Johnny Speeds win outright within the settlement window.
That reading sits well alongside the pre-match and historical shape of the fixture. Recent match listings had Metizport favoured in the series, with one market feed showing Metizport around 57% on community votes and another bookmaker-style set of odds implying a shorter price for Metizport than for Johnny Speeds. The head-to-head record also leans Metizport, with 3 wins from 5 and a map score of 7-3 across those meetings, although Johnny Speeds has taken some of the recent encounters and the teams remain closely ranked in several public listings.[5][8][20]
For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: whether the match is actually played inside the stated window, whether the published start time changes, and whether either roster or the tournament schedule is amended before or during the BO3. The market’s resolution language matters here: a cancelled match, a tie, or a delay beyond seven days forces a 50-50 outcome, while a started-but-unfinished series follows the official winner if one is later declared. Live scoreboards had the fixture marked as upcoming or live around the listed start time, so any official organiser update or delayed bracket movement is the key thing to watch rather than the price on a single odds screen.[1][8][10][11]
Methodology
This page reviews Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs Metizport (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Group D across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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