Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs NEW VISION (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-3.5) vs NEW VISION (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-3.5) vs NEW VISION (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-6.5) vs NEW VISION (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-3.5) vs NEW VISION (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-6.5) vs NEW VISION (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-9.5) vs NEW VISION (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-12.5) vs NEW VISION (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-9.5) vs NEW VISION (+9.5) | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing the SPARTA vs NEW VISION contract at **100% YES**, which means the market is effectively assuming SPARTA win the best-of-three and that no settlement edge remains on the New Vision side. Because the contract is built from conditional tokens settled in USDC on Polygon, that price reflects where traders think the payout will land at resolution rather than a separate view on the teams’ raw form.
The main recent comparison is the event’s own narrow match window: this CCT Europe Series #6 Group Stage series is listed as a BO3, and both team pages and match trackers place it at 14:00 UTC on 30 July, with SPARTA shown in the fixture and the market description tying settlement to a completed result. Liquipedia confirms the Group Stage is a 16-team Swiss format with all matches played as best-of-three, while recent results show NEW VISION beat Benched Gods 2-0 in the same event, and SPARTA have already been active in the group stage as well.[3][12][6][10]
For traders, the key catalysts are not abstract statistics but execution: confirmation the match starts on schedule, whether the organiser keeps the BO3 in place, and any late change to the card, server, or broadcast order. A delayed start still matters here because Polymarket’s outcome depends on the match being played to a winner; if it is cancelled, tied, or left unresolved beyond seven days, the contract settles 50-50 under the market rules. The practical read is that a 100% print leaves little room for new information unless there is a schedule update or a no-contest scenario.[2][3]
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Eur… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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