Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-3.5) vs BakS eSports (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BakS eSports (-3.5) vs Virtus.pro (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs BakS eSports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-3.5) vs BakS eSports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-3.5) vs BakS eSports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-6.5) vs BakS eSports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BAKS (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BakS eSports (-6.5) vs Virtus.pro (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BakS eSports (-9.5) vs Virtus.pro (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-9.5) vs BakS eSports (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-6.5) vs BakS eSports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-12.5) vs BakS eSports (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-6.5) vs BakS eSports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-9.5) vs BakS eSports (+9.5) | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is effectively treating Virtus.pro vs BakS eSports as a dead market today, with the contract sitting at **0% YES** on the crowd-implied price. On Polymarket, that means traders holding USDC on Polygon are assigning no live probability to a Virtus.pro win, even though the market still resolves through conditional tokens against the actual match outcome, not the pre-match narrative.
That pricing is easiest to read against the event’s live comparator set. The match did in fact go ahead in the CIS LAN Championship Playoffs and finished **Virtus.pro 2-1 BakS eSports** on 30 July, which is the sort of result that would normally force a clean binary resolution rather than a fallback 50-50 settlement.[1] Comparable CIS LAN listings around the same event also show Virtus.pro having been priced as the stronger side in other series, although one third-party preview model still split the map edge fairly closely, which is typical in a BO3 where one upset map can swing the series but not necessarily the match.[3][4]
For traders, the main catalysts are now operational rather than sporting: whether the market has acknowledged the completed result, whether the scheduled start time matched the exchange feed, and whether any dispute or data issue delays resolution beyond the seven-day window that would trigger the market’s 50-50 fallback. Public bracket and fixture pages show the matchup as part of the playoff slate, and tournament listings around CIS LAN Championship 6 indicate BakS eSports were active in the same event block, which helps explain why this contract can stay open even when the underlying series has already been played elsewhere in the data stack.[2][5]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs BakS eSports (BO3) - C… on PolyGram
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