Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 100% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 91% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 90% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 90% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: DAN (-1.5) vs Team AION (+1.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Game Handicap: Team AION (-1.5) vs Dandelions (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Team AION versus Dandelions in the EPL Masters Play-In Group B is being priced at **0% YES** on Polymarket, which means the contract is currently behaving as a near-zero chance of settling to Team AION rather than Dandelions. Because the market is settled in **USDC** on **Polygon** through conditional tokens, the key question for holders is not the game in the abstract but whether the match is actually played to a completed result before the resolution window closes.
The current price sits far away from the broader match-read available elsewhere. Bo3.gg lists the fixture and scoreline options for Team AION vs Dandelions, while Strafe’s match page shows users heavily leaning towards **Dandelions**, with **88.9%** of votes on Dandelions and **11.1%** on Team AION.[1][4] For a Polymarket user, that kind of outside-market consensus matters because a 0% contract can still move if the event is confirmed and the settlement path becomes clear; it only resolves to **50-50** if the match is cancelled, ends level, or is delayed more than seven days without a winner.
The main catalysts to watch are straightforward: official lobby start, any schedule slippage, and whether either team fields a full roster. If the series starts but cannot be completed, forfeit rules become the decisive factor for settlement, so live updates from tournament coverage are more relevant than pre-match hype. With the market’s settlement clock tied to the listed July 24 window, traders are mainly watching for confirmation that the BO3 goes ahead cleanly rather than relying on pre-match sentiment.[1][4]
Methodology
We track Dota 2: Team AION vs Dandelions (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group B across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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