Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 1% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: Team Jenz (-1.5) vs PuckChamp (+1.5) | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Game Handicap: PckCp (-1.5) vs Team Jenz (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
PuckChamp face Team Jenz in a best-of-three Dota 2 match within the EPL Masters Play-In Group A bracket, scheduled for 22 July at 3:00 PM ET. The Polymarket contract currently trades at 100% YES, reflecting either overwhelming confidence in PuckChamp's victory or minimal liquidity and trading activity on this particular fixture. The settlement window extends to 25 July at 16:00 UTC, allowing a three-day buffer for match completion and result confirmation before the market resolves.
Historical precedent from regional Dota 2 qualifiers and play-in tournaments shows that matches scheduled within EPL structures typically proceed as planned, with cancellations or extended delays remaining uncommon. Team composition stability and prior head-to-head records between these rosters would normally inform probability calibration, though the 100% implied price suggests either one-sided market perception or insufficient trader participation to establish a competitive spread. Comparable play-in stage matches in similar regional circuits have resolved decisively once commenced, with forfeiture outcomes rare at this competitive level.
Traders monitoring this contract should track official EPL announcements regarding roster confirmations and any scheduling adjustments closer to the match date. Network conditions, player availability, and broadcast infrastructure issues have occasionally delayed Dota 2 matches within 24 hours of start time. The three-day settlement window provides reasonable margin for technical delays, though matches extending beyond 7 days without completion would trigger a 50-50 resolution per the market terms. Current USDC liquidity on Polygon will determine execution costs for any position adjustment before the 22 July fixture begins.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Team Jenz (BO3) - EPL Masters P… on PolyGram
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