Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

TEAM VISION and Team Falcons meet in a best-of-three Dota 2 match during The International group stage on 13 August 2026, with the contest scheduled for 05:00 ET. Polymarket currently prices TEAM VISION's victory at 81 cents on the dollar, implying roughly four-to-one odds in their favour. The conditional token structure on Polygon means traders hold either VISION or FALCONS tokens, settling to USDC at match conclusion; a cancellation or draw triggers a 50-50 split of the collateral pool.

Historical precedent from The International's group stages suggests that seeding and regional strength matter considerably. Teams entering from stronger regions—particularly China and Europe—have historically maintained higher win rates in early rounds, though upsets occur when preparation gaps emerge or meta shifts favour specific drafting styles. Team Falcons, representing the Middle East and North Africa region, would need to overcome both the implied skill differential and the crowd's confidence in TEAM VISION's preparation.

Traders should monitor roster announcements through early August, as last-minute stand-ins or illness can shift match dynamics substantially. Schedule adherence at The International has been reliable in recent years, reducing postponement risk, though technical issues during group play have occasionally forced brief delays. Patch notes released before the tournament lock and any official commentary on team form from tournament organisers or regional qualifiers will provide concrete signals for position adjustments before settlement on 13 August at 16:05 UTC.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.