Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
56% | 44% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
56% | 44% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game Handicap: KRX (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) | 56% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Game 2 Winner | 44% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 44% |
| Match Winner | 20% |
| Game Handicap: DNS (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing DN SOOPers at **39% YES** against Kiwoom DRX in this KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier BO3, which implies the market currently favours Kiwoom DRX while still leaving a meaningful upset path for DN SOOPers. On Polymarket, the contract settles in **USDC** on **Polygon** through conditional tokens, so the live price reflects both the match outlook and the market’s view of settlement risk, including the fallback to **50-50** if the series is not played, ends level, or is delayed beyond the window.
The current read is consistent with the broader pre-match pricing and recent head-to-head. Polymarket’s own event page shows Kiwoom DRX ahead at around **70%** versus **30%** for DN SOOPers, while third-party odds also lean DRX, with bo3.gg listing Kiwoom DRX around **1.47** and DN SOOPers around **2.63**. That fits the recent result between the sides: Kiwoom DRX swept DN SOOPers **2-0 on 6 August**, and Strafe notes Kiwoom DRX have won **8 of 14** meetings overall, although DN SOOPers have taken several earlier wins and the historical split is not one-sided.
For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: confirmation that the match starts on schedule, any roster or substitution news, and whether this BO3 is affected by the wider KeSPA Cup timetable. Sofascore lists the series for **08:15 UTC** on 10 August, and Bo3.gg places it in **Round 3** of the Last Chance Qualifier, so any delay, replay, or no-contest scenario matters because Polymarket’s contract can move to the **50-50** resolution path if the match is not completed within the stated rules. Pre-match form, draft-dependent matchups, and whether DRX repeats the early-game control seen in the prior sweep are the practical things to watch before the settlement window closes.
Methodology
This page reviews LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last… on PolyGram
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