LoL: FlyQuest vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing FlyQuest vs Disguised at **100% YES**, so the contract is effectively trading as a near-certain FlyQuest win rather than as a live two-sided match market. On Polymarket, this is a USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional token contract: if FlyQuest win the best-of-three, YES resolves to 1; if Disguised win, NO does; and if the match is not completed within the settlement rules, the market can still resolve 50-50 on specified cancellation or delay outcomes.

That pricing sits in line with the recent head-to-head record. Across the available series listed by match databases, FlyQuest have beaten Disguised repeatedly, including a 2–0 result in the April 2026 regular season and a 2–1 win in the 2026 Lock-In Swiss stage; the broader series history shown by head-to-head trackers gives FlyQuest three wins and Disguised none. FlyQuest also enter with stronger recent team-level form in the same databases, which helps explain why the market has already moved to an extreme price rather than leaving much room for an upset bid.

For traders, the practical catalysts are mostly operational rather than narrative: the match start time, any broadcast or tournament schedule change, and whether the series is actually played to completion before the settlement window closes. Because the market is tied to a specific LCS regular-season BO3, a late postponement, reschedule, or forfeiture would matter as much as the in-game scoreline. In a 100% YES market, the main risk is not an ordinary upset but an event-level disruption that could force a 50-50 resolution under the contract rules.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.