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LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Match Winner 74% First Blood in Game 1? 70% Game 2 Winner 67% O/U 3.5 Games 67% Volume: $163K Liquidity: $260K Closes: 4 Jul 2026
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LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
74% 26% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
74% 26% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner74%
First Blood in Game 1?70%
Game 2 Winner67%
O/U 3.5 Games67%
Game 1 Winner66%
Game 3 Winner66%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?63%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?62%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon60%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon60%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon60%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)57%
Odd/Even Total Kills56%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?52%
Game 4 Winner51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
First Blood in Game 4?48%
First Blood in Game 3?48%
First Blood in Game 2?48%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?48%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?48%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon47%
Odd/Even Total Kills46%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon46%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?43%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?40%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?39%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor38%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor38%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors38%
Any Player Quadra Kill38%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors37%
Any Player Quadra Kill37%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor37%
Any Player Quadra Kill37%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors35%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?34%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?33%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?33%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)32%
O/U 4.5 Games28%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 74% probability to lol: lyon vs furia esports (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between LYON and FURIA Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 3 at 11:00PM ET. This market will…

Methodology

This page reviews LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
and

Trade LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invita… on PolyGram

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

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