Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
69% | 31% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
69% | 31% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 69% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 69% |
| Match Winner | 68% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 59% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 59% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 58% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 49% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 49% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 39% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 39% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 39% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 38% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 38% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 38% |
| Game Handicap: MYTH (-1.5) vs Dynasty (+1.5) | 30% |
| Game 1 Winner | 28% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
Market context
Polymarket prices Myth Esports at **39%** to beat Dynasty in this Road Of Legends regular-season BO3, with each YES share settling to USDC on Polygon through the market’s conditional-token structure. The contract’s payoff is tied to the official match outcome: Myth wins if it takes the series, while a Dynasty series win resolves the market the other way; if the match is not completed in the manner specified by the rules, resolution can fall back to 50-50.
That pricing sits below a coin-flip and is broadly consistent with a market treating Dynasty as the narrower favourite, or at least with uncertainty around which roster and map form will show up on the day. Public match listings show Myth and Dynasty already paired for this fixture, and at least one odds page is framing it as a series with the standard BO3 scorelines rather than a one-map upset market.[1][3] For Polymarket users, that means the current spread is less about abstract team strength than about how the series rule-set and settlement mechanics will interact if the match is delayed, forfeited, or only partly completed.[2]
The main catalysts are straightforward: official start-time confirmation, any schedule slip, and whether either side posts line-up or roster-change news before the series. Markets like this can move late if a match page is updated, if a broadcaster shifts the slot, or if there is a late withdrawal that changes the likelihood of a completed result versus a fallback settlement. Recent listings place the fixture for 23 July and separate pages still show the matchup live, so the key trade is whether the series actually starts on time and reaches a normal official result.[1][4][5]
Methodology
This page reviews LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Season across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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