LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Platform comparison

Market context

Shopify Rebellion versus Disguised is already pricing as a **100% YES** contract on Polymarket, so the market is effectively assuming a Shopify win in the LCS regular season BO3. On Polymarket, the position settles in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the key question is not the abstract matchup but whether the listed outcome actually appears in the official result before the settlement window closes.

That sort of price leaves little room for variance, which is notable because the recent head-to-head record has not been one-sided. Shopify beat Disguised 2-0 in the LCS 2026 spring regular season on 16 May[2][4], but a later preview of the summer meeting projected a 2-1 Disguised win[1]. In other words, comparable cases show the teams can produce different map scores across splits, even if one side has had the clearer recent result.

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: an official schedule change, a match delay, or a result being confirmed by the league. The market description says a cancellation, tie, or a delay of more than seven days without a winner would resolve to 50-50, while an incomplete match can still settle if an official winner is assigned. That makes the practical watchlist less about in-game leverage and more about whether the BO3 is played as planned and logged cleanly before the deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.