Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 90% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 1% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 1% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 1% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 1% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 1% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers Challengers (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
T1 Academy face DN SOOPers Challengers in a best-of-three fixture within the LCK Challengers League's Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group, scheduled for 15 August at 23:00 ET. The Polymarket contract currently prices T1 Academy victory at zero, reflecting either extreme confidence in the challengers or insufficient liquidity to establish a meaningful spread on USDC-denominated conditional tokens. Settlement occurs 7 days post-match or by 16 August 09:00 UTC, with any cancellation, tie, or unresolved delay triggering a 50-50 split of the pool.
T1 Academy operates as the secondary roster of T1, one of League of Legends' most established organisations, and typically fields players developing towards the main LCK squad. DN SOOPers Challengers competes as a challenger team within the same regional structure. Historical precedent suggests academy rosters backed by major organisations carry measurable advantages in resource allocation and player development infrastructure, though Challengers League outcomes remain volatile given the developmental nature of competition. The 0% probability assigned to T1 Academy may reflect either mispricing or genuine uncertainty around roster availability and form heading into Rounds 3-4.
Traders should monitor LCK Challengers League official announcements for roster confirmations, injury updates, or schedule changes. The fixture timing—late evening ET on a Friday—may affect liquidity patterns on Polygon-based markets. Any pre-match statements from T1 or DN SOOPers regarding player availability could shift conditional token valuations substantially before settlement. The seven-day resolution window provides buffer for delayed matches, though extended postponements would trigger the automatic 50-50 outcome.
Methodology
This page reviews LoL: T1 Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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