Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing Team Solid at **100% YES** on this BO1, so the conditional tokens on Polygon are effectively treating a Team Solid win as a locked-in outcome and the remaining risk as an execution issue rather than a sporting one. Because this market settles on the official result for the Circuito Desafiante regular season, any late change to the fixture, a no-contest, or a delay beyond the seven-day window would matter more than pre-match model debate.
The reading is consistent with the recent head-to-head and market history. Vivo Keyd Stars Academy beat Team Solid 1-0 in their April meeting in the same competition, and the pair also met again in early August with Vivo Keyd Stars Academy again listed as the winner in results feeds, which helps explain why this fixture has attracted one-sided pricing in other venues as well[1][7][8]. External odds and prediction sites have also leaned strongly towards Vivo Keyd Stars Academy in comparable listings, showing how quickly the market can diverge from a simple latest-result narrative when line-ups, form and scheduling are taken into account[6][12][19].
For traders, the main catalysts are confirmation from the tournament operator, any rescheduling notices, and whether the match is actually played before the settlement deadline. The market description makes the on-chain rules important: if the match is cancelled, ends level, or slips more than seven days without a winner, it resolves 50-50; if play starts but stops without a completed result, the final official ruling decides the token outcome. That means the practical watchlist is the fixture status rather than the implied certainty itself, especially with the market still open close to the August settlement window.[11][13]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade LoL: Team Solid vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO1) - C… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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