WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this WTI close-above contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively saying the listed threshold is not expected to be cleared by the settlement close. The trade is collateralised in **USDC** on **Polygon**, with outcome exposure represented through **conditional tokens**, so the relevant question for users is the final reference price used at settlement rather than intraday noise.

That reading is consistent with recent WTI trading levels that have been well below the higher summer prints seen earlier in the month. Front-month WTI was around **$79.77** in one live futures feed and roughly **$74.63** in another market report, while a recent session saw the August contract close at **84.46** on 29 July before sliding sharply afterwards.[2][6][18] For a close-above market, that kind of gap between the threshold and the latest settlement matters more than spot headlines, because the contract resolves on the benchmark close, not on the day’s peak or a transient bid.

Traders should watch the front-month WTI session, any OPEC+ messaging, and scheduled U.S. inventory and macro releases, since those are the usual catalysts for late-day repricing in crude. News flow on 5 August highlighted easing Middle East supply fears and a third straight decline in crude, with WTI quoted near **$74.63** as shipping concerns through the Strait of Hormuz eased.[6] On Polymarket, that means the last few hours are about whether physical-market moves and the futures close can still flip the conditional-token payoff before the window shuts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 5? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.