Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **11% YES**, which means the market is still pricing Israel’s formal acceptance as a low-probability outcome before 7 August. On Polymarket, traders are expressing that view with USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the price reflects both the public headlines and the lack of a clear Israeli commitment.

The backdrop is a proposal that puts disarmament and withdrawal into the same package: Hamas would hand over weapons in stages, while Israel would pull back in step with verification, under a technocratic Gaza administration overseen by the Board of Peace.[3][5][7] That structure matters for reading the market, because Israel is being asked to sign up to a phased roadmap rather than a simple ceasefire statement. Reuters reported on 30 July that the plan called for humanitarian aid, civilian governance, Hamas disarmament, Israeli withdrawal and an international security force, but Israel had not yet accepted it.[13] CNN reported on 3 August that Israel’s response remained effectively silent, with no public confirmation of acceptance.[2]

For traders, the key catalysts are any Israeli cabinet or prime minister’s office statement, any revised text that softens the sequencing of withdrawal and disarmament, and any fresh mediator-backed announcement from the US, Egypt or Qatar. Bloomberg reported on 3 August that Israeli strikes in Gaza were already casting doubt on revival of the plan, which keeps attention on whether battlefield developments derail diplomacy before the deadline.[9] A same-day acceptance would likely need to be explicit and attributable; a conditional endorsement of a successor roadmap may still resolve this contract to Yes only if credible reporting treats it as the same core agreement, so the exact wording of any announcement matters.[12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.