Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES** today, which means the market is effectively assigning no weight to a verified Hamas announcement that it will disarm before the deadline. On Polymarket, that view is expressed in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the live price reflects where traders think the settlement outcome sits after accounting for both the wording of the resolution and the need for an official, credible statement from Hamas leadership.

That reading matches the recent record. Reuters reported in April that Hamas told mediators it would not enter disarmament talks unless Israel fully withdrew from Gaza, while the BBC and other outlets have since reported repeated Hamas refusals to disarm without wider political guarantees, including a Palestinian state or completed ceasefire terms.[2][1][12] Comparable ceasefire proposals have repeatedly put disarmament at the centre of later-phase negotiations, but Hamas has consistently treated weapons as leverage rather than something it is ready to relinquish unconditionally.[3][11]

A trader watching this market should focus on any formal Hamas communiqué, statements from the group’s political leadership, and whether mediator-backed Gaza transition talks move from conditional language to explicit commitments. Reuters’ April reporting shows the key dependency chain: Israeli withdrawal and ceasefire implementation first, then disarmament discussion, which leaves little room for a clean YES unless there is an unusual shift in Hamas’ stated position.[2] Under the market rules, only a public, official commitment to relinquish or dismantle military capability in Gaza will settle YES, so informal hints, third-party claims, or partial battlefield de-escalation will not be enough.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.