Iran charges Hormuz fees by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **0% YES**, which implies traders are currently treating an official, generalised Iranian fee regime for commercial transits through Hormuz as absent or too uncertain to price. On Polymarket, that means USDC is locked into conditional tokens on Polygon, so the market is really weighing whether Tehran will make a formal announcement and then actually collect a mandatory charge before 31 August 2026, not just whether ships face ad hoc payments or political pressure.

The main comparison is the spring-to-summer 2026 shift from informal toll reports to contested “service fee” language. Reuters reported in April that Iran was proposing fees tied to a broader peace arrangement, while later reporting said Tehran’s Hormuz authority would waive fees during a 60-day negotiation period and collect only for services such as security, safety and environmental support.[14][12] Bloomberg and the WSJ then reported that some vessels were being asked for as much as $2 million per voyage, but on an ad hoc basis rather than through a clearly systematic tariff.[1][2] That distinction matters for this market: isolated demands do not settle a YES, while an official, generally applicable charge would.

For traders, the catalysts are formal statements from Iran’s foreign ministry, the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, or the Supreme National Security Council, plus any published tariff schedule, permit rules, or billing instructions. Reuters said ships had to file transit requests 48 hours ahead during the waiver period, so any return of mandatory pre-clearance, invoices, or enforcement notices would be a key signal.[12] Also watch whether Iran continues to frame the payments as “service fees” rather than tolls, since the market rules allow either wording if the charge is mandatory for passage.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Iran charges Hormuz fees by 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.