Total Internet Blackout in Iran by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **0% YES**, so the market is pricing an internet blackout in Iran as not happening by 31 August 2026, with settlement tied to Cloudflare Radar showing total bytes at **1.0% or less** of the prior four-week maximum for **six straight hourly readings**. Because the contract settles on objective traffic data rather than headlines, traders are really buying exposure to whether Iran’s connectivity falls to a near-zero level again on the specific Radar chart, not whether the country experiences slowdowns or partial filtering.

The main historical reference is that Iran has repeatedly used broad shutdowns in periods of unrest and conflict. Nationwide disruptions were reported in 2019 during protest activity, and Iran also saw a major blackout in January 2026; later reporting said the country again cut access at near-zero levels from late February 2026, with connectivity around 1% of pre-war levels and a prolonged shutdown that became the longest on record by some monitors.[1][6][10][14][16] That history supports the idea that a total blackout is possible, but it also shows these events have generally been tied to acute security or protest escalations rather than routine policy.

For traders, the key catalysts are any renewed domestic unrest, state security announcements, military escalation, or official telecom orders that could affect backbone routing and international access. The most relevant watchpoints are Iranian government statements, protest calendars, regional conflict developments, and monitoring from Cloudflare Radar and other internet observatories, because the market only resolves if the shutdown is deep enough and sustained long enough to meet the six-hour threshold. In practical terms, a brief slowdown, platform blocking, or partial domestic intranet access would not be enough unless traffic on the Radar chart collapses to the contract’s blackout definition.[2][7][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

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