Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the contract at **99% YES**, which means the market is treating a Japanese landfall by the centre of Super Typhoon Dolphin as the near-base case. On Polymarket, that view is expressed through USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon, so the price reflects trader consensus on whether the JMA will place the storm over Japanese territory before the market’s settlement cut-off.

That level is broadly consistent with the public track narrative, which has repeatedly pointed Dolphin towards Japan’s southern and south-western arc. Recent reporting said the system had already brushed the Ogasawara Islands and was expected to bring severe weather to Okinawa, with one update saying landfall on Okinawa was due that week[5]. Earlier trackers also described model guidance clustering around Japan’s general direction, with Kyushu and the Ryukyu chain featuring prominently in forecast discussions[2][9]. For a contract defined by coastline crossing rather than a close pass, the main question is less whether Japan is affected and more whether the centre of circulation is actually carried ashore.

The key trader watchpoints are the JMA’s position advisories, which decide the official resolution if they place the centre over Japanese land, plus any shift in steering ridges, eyewall replacement cycles, or track recurve that could move the core offshore[15]. Forecast windows are narrowing, but path uncertainty still matters because the market only resolves on physical crossing, not wind, rain, or proximity alone. International coverage has been updating daily as the storm advances, and that cadence is likely to remain important for repricing if the expected Okinawa, Ryukyu or main-island approach changes materially[5][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.