# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **0% YES** on the current contract, so the market is effectively saying the next MrBeast upload will not land in the named 24-hour view bracket. On Polymarket, that view is expressed in **USDC** and settled through **conditional tokens** on Polygon, with the payout determined by the official MrBeast YouTube counter after the first 24 hours, not by an early view milestone or social media chatter.[6][8]

For context, MrBeast has repeatedly delivered very large first-day view counts, with recent uploads reported at roughly 14.4 million views in 24 hours for one video and around 71 million for another record-setting release.[5][7] Third-party tracking and commentary on his channel also suggest that many major uploads still cluster in the tens of millions on day one, which is why traders often use prior 24-hour prints as the best guide for where a fresh upload may finish, even though performance varies sharply by concept, title and thumbnail.[2][9][10]

The main catalysts are timing and format: whether MrBeast posts a standard long-form video before the August 31 deadline, whether it is a Shorts-style release excluded from this market, and whether there is any public scheduling or teaser that changes expected reach.[6][17] Traders should watch the official YouTube channel for the first upload, then count 24 hours from publication because the market resolves only after that window closes.[6][8] The practical setup on-chain is straightforward: users buy or sell exposure in USDC on Polygon, and the conditional token payout follows the resolution source rather than any off-platform estimate.[6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.