US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **0% YES**, so the market is pricing the June 14 written understanding as having essentially no chance of becoming a qualifying *final* diplomatic instrument before the 31 August settlement cutoff. On Polygon, buyers are still dealing in conditional tokens settled in USDC, so the important question is not whether talks continue, but whether a mutually signed or formally adopted text that meets the market’s wording appears in time.

That 0% looks consistent with how traders usually treat interim Iran-U.S. deals: frameworks, memoranda of understanding and roadmaps can be real diplomatic steps without satisfying a stricter “final deal” condition. In February, reporting on the Geneva rounds described “significant progress” and agreed guiding principles, yet no binding accord followed quickly.[5][6][10] By mid-June, Reuters reported that a signing could happen within days, but the same reporting still framed the text as a memorandum followed by a 60-day negotiation period rather than a completed end-state agreement.[8][17]

For traders, the key catalysts are the formal status of the June instrument, any announced signing ceremony or adoption by the parties, and whether follow-up talks produce an agreement on uranium limits, inspections and sanctions relief before the deadline. Reuters said in June that a signing venue in Europe was being discussed, with the negotiators “quite close” but not finished; if that ceremony slips, or if the 60-day talks end without a final text, the conditional token is likely to stay anchored near zero.[8] Watching official readouts from Washington, Tehran, mediators such as Qatar or Pakistan, and any IAEA-linked technical meeting matters more than headline optimism.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.