Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **58% YES** on USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional tokens, which is consistent with traders paying for a meaningful but not overwhelming chance that the three-day domestic opening lands above **$357.115 million**. Because settlement uses the final **The Numbers** box office figures, the trade is really about whether the Friday-to-Sunday run finishes above *Avengers: Endgame*’s benchmark, not whether the film merely posts a strong launch.

The historical frame is unforgiving: *Avengers: Endgame*’s **$357.1 million** domestic debut is still the bar, while *Spider-Man: No Way Home* reached **$260.1 million**, showing how rare a weekend in Endgame territory is. Recent tracking has mostly sat below that level. The Hollywood Reporter said Marvel was projecting about **$325 million**, while Variety reported a spread of roughly **$260 million to $280 million**, with some analysts and studio guidance nearer **$190 million to $195 million**.[1][5][9] That gap helps explain why the market is not pricing a near-certainty.

What matters now is how much of the opening was already pulled forward into previews and Friday, and whether the reported audience strength carries into Saturday and Sunday. The Hollywood Reporter said the film took **$72 million** in Thursday previews and **$168 million** domestically on Friday, with an **A CinemaScore** and a studio projection of **$325 million** for the weekend; CNBC also reported the same record preview figure and a broad expectation around **$270 million**.[1][4] For a Polymarket user, the practical watchlist is whether late-day estimates, theatre counts, and any revision from studio or trade trackers continue to imply a finish below the Endgame threshold, because the contract will ultimately resolve off the final The Numbers weekend gross, not the headline hype.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.