"Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

Young Washington is set to open its domestic box office run this Fourth of July weekend, with early tracking suggesting a gross between $23 million and $35 million for the three-day opening. The film, a historical epic about the young George Washington timed to America’s 250th anniversary, stars British actor William Franklyn-Miller and is released by Angel Studios on 2,700 screens. Despite the quiet indie landscape, the movie faces competition from Minions & Monsters, which is forecast to open between $68 million and $87 million over five days.

Historically, opening weekend performance on major holidays like July 4 has been a strong predictor of a film’s domestic trajectory, though holiday releases can also suffer from sharp second-week drops if audience retention is weak. For instance, Supergirl recently collapsed 76% in its second weekend, losing to a George Washington-themed film and finishing with a ten-day total of just $48.8 million. This pattern underscores how opening numbers can become a verdict quickly, especially when follow-through is poor.

Traders should monitor Friday’s finalised domestic gross, which is currently estimated at $7.60 million including previews, and watch for any shifts in weekend performance as Minions & Monsters gains momentum. According to Box Office Mojo, the film has already grossed $7.597 million domestically. The settlement window ends on 6 July 2026, and the market will resolve based on The Numbers’ official 3-day figures once studio estimates are replaced with final data. On Polymarket, the contract is priced at 0% YES, reflecting the current crowd-implied probability that the film will not meet the higher bracket threshold. Conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC, will execute the payout once the final value is confirmed.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.