How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are moving in and out of the Persian Gulf again, easing oil prices after weeks of near-standstill traffic caused by the Iran war. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20–30% of global oil consumption daily, saw a sharp recovery over the weekend of July 6–7, with 29 vessels passing on Saturday and 12 on Sunday, though this remains well below the 74 ships recorded earlier in the week [4][5]. This volatility frames the current 85% YES probability on Polymarket: traders are betting that IMF Portwatch will finalize a total transit count that meets the market’s threshold, despite the recent drop following weekend attacks.

Historical patterns show that Hormuz traffic can swing dramatically within days depending on geopolitical developments. In April 2026, inbound voyages were just three while outbound reached six, illustrating how quickly flows can contract [1]. By mid-June, outbound commercial traffic had halted entirely for 72 hours, creating a severe bottleneck before resuming after an interim deal was signed [2][6]. The current probability reflects confidence that the recovery trend will hold through July 12, but traders must watch for any new announcements from Iranian or US technical teams implementing the peace deal, as delays or reversals could abruptly halt transits again [8].

On Polymarket.za.com, this contract trades in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, where the 85% price implies a high likelihood of a “YES” outcome based on finalized IMF Portwatch data. Key catalysts include daily Kpler and MarineTraffic updates, which have already shown sharp drops post-attacks, and any official statements on the interim peace deal’s implementation [5][7]. Since data must be finalized before settlement—meaning the next day’s point must be available—traders should monitor the release schedule closely, as late finalization could delay resolution even if the count is clear.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.