Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **8% YES** today, which signals traders see a warship transit by a listed country as possible but still unlikely before 31 August. On-chain, that view sits in the usual Polymarket stack: users trade **USDC** on **Polygon**, with the event resolved through the market’s conditional-token framework if a national government, its military, or broad credible reporting confirms a qualifying transit.

The main comparator is the run of Hormuz-related naval activity already seen this year. Reuters reported in March that Donald Trump said “many countries” would send warships to keep the strait open, while later reporting and regional coverage pointed to European and Asian vessels moving into or around the area as tensions rose.[6][4][14] That matters because this market is not asking whether the Strait of Hormuz is militarised in general; it needs a specific country’s **warship** to transit the strait during the window. The earlier April Polymarket on the same theme eventually resolved **No**, despite strong headlines around U.S. and allied naval activity, which is a useful reminder that rhetoric and deployments do not always translate into a confirmed transit for each country.[10]

Traders should watch for official naval tasking, escort announcements, and media reports naming hulls and routes. Recent reporting says European countries were preparing to dispatch vessels only once ceasefire conditions held, with Britain already having sent the destroyer *Dragon* to the area and France’s carrier positioned within a few days’ sailing distance.[2] Reuters also reported in late June that Iran, Oman and the IMO were shaping a new shipping arrangement and that traffic had begun to recover, which could reduce the need for fresh warship transits even as IRGC warnings kept the route politically sensitive.[16][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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