Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Over 30,000 vessels typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz annually, making it a critical energy transport route, yet recent data reveals a dramatic collapse in traffic. IMF PortWatch reports that daily crossings, which historically averaged between 75 and 125 ships before the Iran war, have plummeted by more than 95% since March[6][8]. This unprecedented suppression frames the current 46% YES probability on Polymarket; the market is betting on whether this near-total halt will persist or if a sudden surge in transit calls will breach the settlement threshold before July 31, 2026.

To read this probability correctly, traders must monitor catalysts that could reverse the current stagnation, specifically geopolitical announcements regarding the Iran conflict or shifts in Red Sea shipping routes that might force vessels back through Hormuz. The settlement relies on finalized daily data from IMF PortWatch, which updates weekly with real-time satellite verification[1][5]. A trader should watch for any official statements from the International Monetary Fund or regional powers indicating a resumption of commercial flows, as recent reports confirm traffic has virtually stopped since early March[8]. Without such a catalyst, the historical trend of collapse suggests the "No" outcome remains the more likely resolution.

On Polymarket, this contract trades on the Polygon network using USDC, where conditional tokens allow users to take long or short positions on the transit event[1]. The on-chain mechanics ensure that payouts are automated once the IMF PortWatch data point for a specific date is finalized and meets the listed value. Investors should note that ships not reported by the platform, such as untracked military vessels, will not count toward the settlement, meaning the market hinges entirely on verified commercial arrivals[2]. The current price reflects a cautious view that the 95% traffic drop is structural rather than temporary, leaving little room for a sudden spike in arrivals before the deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.