GPT-6 released by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this **GPT-6 by 31 December 2025** contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is effectively saying there is no credible path to a public release inside the settlement window. On Polymarket, users post and match **USDC** on **Polygon**, and the contract settles via conditional tokens once the event criterion is verified against OpenAI’s public release. The bar here is strict: GPT-6 must be publicly available to the general public, not just in a closed beta, private preview, or invite-only test.

The current read is shaped by recent history around OpenAI’s numbering and launch cadence. Multiple trackers note that the model many people expected to become GPT-6 arrived instead as **GPT-5.5 “Spud”** in April 2026, which pushed the numbering sequence back and reduced the case for a 2025-style surprise launch.[1][12][18] That matters for market interpretation because a late-cycle rebrand or a partial rollout can still leave this market unresolved on the “No” side unless OpenAI explicitly names the product GPT-6 and makes it broadly accessible before year-end.[1]

For traders, the key catalysts are public announcement posts, release notes, and any OpenAI event or API update that clearly names GPT-6 and confirms general access. Watch for signs of a developer preview versus a true public launch, because only the latter counts here; OpenAI’s own help pages show that model changes are often documented separately from broad availability.[10] A material trigger would be a post announcing GPT-6 availability across ChatGPT and/or API with open sign-ups, while closed enterprise testing would not move the settlement needle.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track GPT-6 released by…? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.