Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **27% YES**, so traders are currently assigning a minority chance that Iran will publicly agree to end all uranium enrichment by 31 December 2026. On Polymarket, that view is expressed in **USDC** on **Polygon**, with the market settling through the usual conditional-token mechanism if an official pledge is made before the deadline.

The key historical reference point is the 2015 JCPOA, under which Iran agreed to cap enrichment at **3.67%**, slash its stockpile, and halt enrichment at Fordow for a period of years rather than end enrichment altogether.[2][3][6] That matters for reading this market because the bar here is higher: a temporary cap or narrow facility restriction would not be enough unless Iran publicly agreed to stop enrichment entirely. Iran later announced it would break the 3.67% limit in 2019, which shows how quickly nuclear commitments can be reversed when talks deteriorate.[7]

A trader should watch for any US-Iran diplomatic framework, IAEA-linked statements, and comments from Iranian officials on whether a deal includes a full enrichment freeze, even if only for a fixed period, because the market rules count *any* agreement to end enrichment for any amount of time.[5][10] Reuters and BBC reporting in recent months has highlighted fresh negotiation activity and US officials saying Iran had agreed in principle to dispose of enriched uranium stockpiles, but that is not the same as an explicit pledge to end enrichment itself.[5][12] The main dependency is whether negotiators move from stockpile or sanctions language to a public statement that directly covers enrichment cessation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.