Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **65% YES**, with traders funding positions in **USDC** on **Polygon** and holding the outcome through conditional tokens that settle only if a publicly announced second-phase agreement is reached. In plain terms, the market is asking whether the existing Gaza truce will move from a provisional pause into a formal Phase II deal covering the harder issues: Israeli withdrawal, Hamas disarmament, and new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.[3][7][14]

The 65% level sits above what the recent history of the ceasefire suggests. The original phased deal has repeatedly shown how easily the process can stall once the easy steps are done: phase one was finalised, but talks on phase two were meant to begin within days and instead slipped into months of delay, breakdown, and stop-start diplomacy.[3][4][8] That makes this an event market where the gap between a statement that talks are “advancing” and an actual mutual agreement matters more than the broad direction of negotiations.[1][12]

A trader watching this contract should focus on formal announcements from Washington, Doha, Cairo and Jerusalem, plus any public confirmation that the parties have agreed to text on security, detainees, or Gaza’s post-war administration.[1][12][14] Recent reporting has tied phase two to a transitional technocratic authority, a stabilisation force, and further Israeli redeployment, but those items are also the main sources of deadlock, especially disarmament and who controls Gaza on day one of the next phase.[1][2][3] The key catalyst is not talk of “progress” but a named, publicly announced mutual agreement before the settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.