Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil passes daily, has experienced significant disruption since late 2023 as Houthi attacks on commercial shipping intensified. Polymarket currently prices the probability of transit traffic returning to a 7-day moving average of 60+ arrivals by year-end 2026 at 46% YES, implying traders see meaningful structural headwinds persisting through the settlement window. The IMF Portwatch metric tracks actual vessel transits—container, tanker, bulk, and general cargo ships—providing a granular measure of corridor functionality rather than geopolitical rhetoric alone.

Historical precedent suggests Strait disruptions resolve slowly. The 2019 tanker attacks saw traffic recover within months once regional tensions stabilised, but the current Houthi campaign has proven more sustained and operationally sophisticated. The 2022 Russia-Ukraine blockade of Ukrainian grain exports took roughly eight months to partially resolve through alternative corridors. A 46% probability reflects genuine uncertainty: normalisation requires either Houthi capability degradation, a negotiated settlement, or sufficient rerouting to become economically viable—none guaranteed within 24 months.

Traders should monitor three variables closely. First, any escalation or de-escalation in US-led coalition operations against Houthi infrastructure, which directly affects attack frequency. Second, announcements regarding the Suez Canal's capacity and pricing, since higher Suez tolls make the Hormuz route more economically attractive despite risks. Third, quarterly shipping industry reports on rerouting adoption rates; if carriers permanently shift to longer routes around Africa, normalisation becomes less likely even if attacks cease. Recent statements from shipping associations in January 2025 indicated continued reluctance to transit without insurance premium reductions.

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.