Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **6% Yes**, which is a low implied chance that a listed country will formally sign a normalisation deal with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework before the deadline. On Polymarket, traders are pricing USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional tokens, so the market is effectively asking whether an official, publicly acknowledged agreement will land before 31 December 2026 and meet the wording required for resolution.[2]

That pricing sits below the level seen in other recent Abraham Accords-related chatter, where Somaliland has often led the pack and Kazakhstan briefly drew attention after reports of a possible accession, but those headlines do not by themselves satisfy this market’s formal-signature test.[1][2][8] The historical record also matters: the Accords expanded in a small cluster of high-profile deals in 2020, then stalled, with no broad wave of new entrants since. That pattern helps explain why the market can stay in single digits even when diplomacy is active: traders need an actual signed agreement, not just signalling, meetings, or media speculation.[5][7]

For traders, the key catalysts are official statements from Washington, Jerusalem, and the target capital, plus any scheduled visits, summit appearances, or tied security or economic announcements that could precede a signing. A move can follow credible reporting, but this contract only resolves on formal acknowledgement, so rumours about back-channel talks matter less than a public ceremony or joint communiqué that explicitly places the deal under the Abraham Accords banner.[1][2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.