Highest grossing movie in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is straightforward: which film will claim the highest domestic calendar gross in the United States for 2026, measured strictly by Box Office Mojo’s “Gross” column once December data is finalised. Today, Polymarket prices the YES contract for this outcome at 0%, reflecting a market that sees no credible contender currently positioned to win, despite several major releases already in theatres. The on-chain mechanics operate via USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens determine settlement once the resolution source confirms the winner alphabetically in the event of a tie.

Historical patterns from 2026’s box office so far frame how to interpret this near-zero probability. *The Super Mario Galaxy Movie* has already amassed $429.7 million domestically, leading the year, followed by *Michael* at $370.2 million and *Project Hail Mary* at $344.1 million [1][5]. No film released later in the year has yet demonstrated the scale needed to surpass these figures, and summer releases typically struggle to overtake early-year blockbusters unless they achieve unprecedented global momentum. This historical dominance of early releases explains why traders assign negligible odds to any late-year challenger.

Traders should monitor upcoming release schedules and distributor announcements for potential catalysts that could shift the probability. Key dependencies include the domestic rollout of *Toy Story 5*, which has grossed $298.1 million so far but may still have significant December earnings [5]. Additionally, watch for any surprise re-releases or extended theatrical runs, such as the *Top Gun 40th Anniversary* re-release that generated $143,147 in weekend 21 [4]. Recent industry coverage from IMDb confirms *The Super Mario Galaxy Movie* remains the top global grosser for 2026, reinforcing the current market view [2]. Any deviation from this trajectory would require a major, unannounced release with massive holiday appeal.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.