Trump out as President by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices Trump out as President by 31 August at **1% YES**, so the contract is trading as a near-zero-probability event on Polygon, with USDC used to buy and sell conditional tokens that settle to $1 if the “Yes” outcome is triggered. In practical terms, the market is saying traders see only a very small chance that Trump permanently resigns, is removed, or otherwise ceases to be President before the deadline.

For context, this is the kind of contract that usually sits close to the floor unless there is a concrete procedural shock. Comparable resignation and departure markets have tended to move only on hard catalysts such as an official announcement, a verified medical development, or a formal impeachment/removal step; rumours alone have produced short-lived spikes before fading back down. Newsweek reported that a different Trump resignation market briefly jumped on unverified health speculation and the announcement of a White House press event, then retraced once the event risk passed.[1] A 1% price here therefore implies the crowd is assigning very little weight to an actual vacancy event inside the settlement window.[2]

A trader watching this market would focus on official statements, the president’s public schedule, and any fast-moving constitutional or medical developments, because the contract resolves immediately on a qualifying announcement even if the departure takes effect later.[2] The important distinction is permanence: temporary inability, a brief transfer of powers, or an unsustained Section 4 action does not count under the market rules.[2] That means headline risk can move the price sharply, but only a durable exit from office would settle it Yes.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.