How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **96% YES**, which implies traders think a USGS-counted \(M6.5+\) earthquake during the August 3–9 ET window is close to a routine outcome rather than a tail event. On Polymarket, the position is held in **USDC** on **Polygon**, with the payout handled through **conditional tokens** once the resolution source is final, so the key issue is not whether shaking occurred in general but what the USGS catalogue ultimately records for that exact date range. [7]

That pricing sits comfortably inside the historical pattern of global seismicity: the USGS’s own 2026 world list already shows multiple \(M6.5+\) events this year, including several in Japan, the Philippines and the Americas, and BGS’s recent world-event feed shows another \(M6.8\) in Kyushu on 28 July, just before the market window. [4][9] In practical terms, a 96% quote reflects how often at least one qualifying quake appears in a week-long global window, especially when the cutoff is set at 6.5 rather than a higher threshold. [4][9]

The main catalysts are the USGS event feed and any late magnitude revisions, because the market only resolves against the official catalogue and can stay open if a substantial quake has not yet propagated through the source. The contract rules also allow extra time if a final-day event needs review, and the market may remain open until 12 August if a qualifying quake is still pending on the resolution source, so traders should watch for USGS updates rather than headlines alone. [7][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.